From our Pinellas Correspondent:
Little known US Senate candidate Marielena Stuart won a surprise victory in the Pinellas REC Straw Poll last night, 110 votes to George LeMieux’s 69, Connie Mack’s 12, Dave Weldon’s 5, and Mike McCalister’s 4.
But when is a straw poll from an REC really a straw poll by an REC? It turns out that Pinellas Chairman JJ Beyrouti allowed anyone in attendance to vote. So the votes cast weren’t all from REC members. There was no fee to participate (like in the Pasco REC’s recent poll) and Stuart’s supporters came out in force.
As the Tampa Bay Times wrote, “Cuban-born Stuart railed against President Barack Obama, Roe vs. Wade, communism in China and Cuba, and popular tea party targets like Agenda 21 during her 15-minute speech.”
While Kevin Thornhill of the Pinellas Patriots, a 9-12 Project group, referred to her as a “female Ronald Reagan,” a member of the Pinellas REC who wished the remain nameless called the whole event “embarassing.” He stated “Stuart doesn’t have a chance in hell and we just marginalized ourselves by doing this.”
Our reaction: While Stuart’s red-meat tea-party inspired speech was well received, this whole episode shows how irrelevant straw polls really have become. We all remember Herman Cain’s victory at Presidency 5. The truth is that after Marco Rubio set the standard for making straw polls seem to carry some weight back in 2009, everyone has tried to be “the next Rubio.” But we believe Rubio’s rise was a one-time event – only when you are a credible candidate like Rubio taking on a liberal Republican incumbent like Charlie Crist can this strategy work. The US Senate Race this year simply is not a Crist v. Rubio redux.
Ms. Stuart stands little chance of winning the August primary, let alone a general election. She has a campaign war chest of $6,500, compared to Nelson’s $9.5 million campaign account, Mack’s $1.38 million, and LeMieux’s $1.19 million.
If an REC is to do a straw poll, it should follow one of two courses. 1) Only let actual REC members participate – then at least an REC Straw Poll will reflect the thoughts of actual REC members. 2) Charge for the straw poll – then no matter what happens, at least the REC makes some money off of the whole thing and the public knows that it would be a “fundraiser straw poll” open to everyone.
While this whole episode does show how unsettled the Senate primary is, it also shows how activists may be “grabbing at straws” in trying to find an alternative to Connie Mack.
RPOF Annual Meeting Recap; Rising Stars; Commentary
As expected, it was a rather uneventful meeting at the Rosen Center in Orlando as Republican State Committee members from across the state gathered to elect the state party officials, as well as the Congressional District chairs. Though party leaders put on a public face of optimism with mostly recycled talking points, there was an underlying sense of dread about the prospects for Governor Scott’s reelection, despite a better than usual speech from the Governor.
Chairman Lenny Curry and Vice-Chair Blaise Ingoglia were elected without opposition, as were most of the other seats. One interesting quote from Lenny Curry: “Being a Republican does not require an unyielding orthodoxy and not thinking.”
Some Winners and Losers and Rising Stars
Kathy King, the Manatee County Chair, was reelected as the RPOF Secretary – beating Stafford Jones, the Alachua County Chair. Ms. King is not favored by all of the establishment of the RPOF Executive Board, and that’s probably why this challenge came up. There was also an open seat for Assistant Secretary, for which Clint Pate won against two opponents, succeeding after a runoff. These seats don’t have much real power, but can often be a springboard to greater roles — remember that Mr. Ingoglia’s first position on the Executive Board was as Assistant Treasurer.
In more important news, the RPOF Executive Board is getting a little bit of fresh air in some of its Congressional District Chairs. At long last, and thanks to the redistricting of the Congressional Districts, rising star Joe Gruters - Chairman of Sarasota County and one of the best county chairs in the state – was elected as a Congressional District Chair and will serve on the RPOF Executive Board. The RPOF Establishment would do well by listening to his insights. Christian Ziegler - The youthful State Committeeman from Sarasota – became an alternate CD Chair.
Leslie Dougher from Clay County was elected as the Chair of the County Chairs, replacing the aforementioned Kathy King, who held upwards of three titles simultaneously prior to this weekend. This position is really only important because it gives its holder a seat on the Executive Board. New Pinellas GOP Chair Michael Guju was elected as the Vice-Chair of the County Chairs, as well as a CD Chair Alternate. Pinellas State Committeewoman Nancy Riley was elected as a CD Chair. Former Pinellas GOP Chair JJ Beyrouti, as well as former Hillsborough GOP Chair Debbie Cox Roush, were selected as two of the Governor’s Appointees to the State Committee. We are guessing that Governor Scott is trying to shore up some support in the I-4 Corridor, and given a recent poll, Scott needs all the help he can get there.
Overall, it was largely more of the same – a lot of empty rhetoric. Though we hate to have a negative impression about the future of the party, we don’t believe the RPOF Party establishment will make much room for new ideas.
UPDATE: We’ll expand upon our “empty rhetoric” comment above.
As summarized in the Orlando Sentinel: “Scott and Curry urged a similar economic message that Mitt Romney embraced during his failed presidential run: that Republicans stand for freedom of opportunity and business. Ingoglia even suggested the party’s nickname — Grand Old Party — be recast as the Grand Opportunity Party. … “It is up to us in this room to not be tagged as the party of ‘no,’ but as the party of opportunity,” Curry said. … Orange County Republican Chairman Lew Oliver, however, said that message is not enough. Voters heard the “opportunity” message in 2012, he said — they just weren’t that interested.
It’s the “opportunity” rhetoric that we were referring to. Mr. Romney often utilized this line during the campaign, but it didn’t resonate with the voters. It’s just a recycled line from the Romney campaign.
We believe the RPOF often gets caught up in a lot of discussion of new ideas with very little implementation. We’ve been attending these meetings for years, and have seen new ideas presented but largely ignored…the favored consultants generally run the show, along with staff, and most people presenting new ideas usually give up. We don’t really have a problem with Mr. Ingoglia or Mr. Curry or anyone currently in power – it’s more of a structural problem. Having a meeting every quarter generally leads to new ideas being tabled or postponed, and thus taking a very long time to be implemented…if they are ever actually implemented. New members of the committee often get discouraged. There were a lot of new members on this year’s committee, so hopefully they will stay involved and active in improving the party.
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Tagged blaise ingoglia, christian ziegler, Clint Pate, debbie cox-rousch, debbie cox-roush, jj beyrouti, joe gruters, kathy king manatee, lenny curry, leslie dougher, lew oliver, michael guju, republican state committee, RPOF, rpof annual meeting, stafford jones