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Marielena Stuart Wins Pinellas Straw Poll: Reaction

From our Pinellas Correspondent:

Little known US Senate candidate Marielena Stuart won a surprise victory in the Pinellas REC Straw Poll last night, 110 votes to George LeMieux’s 69, Connie Mack’s 12, Dave Weldon’s 5, and Mike McCalister’s 4.

But when is a straw poll from an REC really a straw poll by an REC?  It turns out that Pinellas Chairman JJ Beyrouti allowed anyone in attendance to vote.  So the votes cast weren’t all from REC members.  There was no fee to participate (like in the Pasco REC’s recent poll) and Stuart’s supporters came out in force.

As the Tampa Bay Times wrote, “Cuban-born Stuart railed against President Barack Obama, Roe vs. Wade, communism in China and Cuba, and popular tea party targets like Agenda 21 during her 15-minute speech.”

While Kevin Thornhill of the Pinellas Patriots, a 9-12 Project group, referred to her as a “female Ronald Reagan,” a member of the Pinellas REC who wished the remain nameless called the whole event “embarassing.”  He stated “Stuart doesn’t have a chance in hell and we just marginalized ourselves by doing this.”

Our reaction: While Stuart’s red-meat tea-party inspired speech was well received, this whole episode shows how irrelevant straw polls really have become.  We all remember Herman Cain’s victory at Presidency 5.  The truth is that after Marco Rubio set the standard for making straw polls seem to carry some weight back in 2009, everyone has tried to be “the next Rubio.”  But we believe Rubio’s rise was a one-time event – only when you are a credible candidate like Rubio taking on a liberal Republican incumbent like Charlie Crist can this strategy work.  The US Senate Race this year simply is not a Crist v. Rubio redux.

Ms. Stuart stands little chance of winning the August primary, let alone a general election.  She has a campaign war chest of $6,500, compared to Nelson’s $9.5 million campaign account, Mack’s $1.38 million, and LeMieux’s $1.19 million.

If an REC is to do a straw poll, it should follow one of two courses.  1) Only let actual REC members participate – then at least an REC Straw Poll will reflect the thoughts of actual REC members.  2) Charge for the straw poll – then no matter what happens, at least the REC makes some money off of the whole thing and the public knows that it would be a “fundraiser straw poll” open to everyone.

While this whole episode does show how unsettled the Senate primary is, it also shows how activists may be “grabbing at straws” in trying to find an alternative to Connie Mack.

Crowded Field Fights to Face Wasserman Schultz

Crowded field fights to face Wasserman Schultz

By Brandon Larrabee, The News Service of Florida

THE CAPITAL, TALLAHASSEE, May 17, 2012……There is already a scrum of candidates fighting to take on one of the most visible national Democrats in Florida: Democratic National Committee Chairwoman and Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schulz.

At least six candidates have filed to run against Wasserman Schultz, though only three have raised more than $100,000 and another hasn’t filed any disclosure reports with the Federal Elections Commission. And all say they believe they have a chance to defeat the four-term congresswoman.

It seems an unlikely pick-up for Republicans. In 2008, President Barack Obama won almost 61.8 percent of the vote in the district against his Republican opponent, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona. Democratic candidate Alex Sink carried almost 60.1 percent two years later, while three Democratic candidates for the Cabinet who got trounced statewide all won majorities in the 23rd.

But while they might differ over some policies, Republicans in the race share one belief: Wasserman Schultz’s position as DNC chair has made her more vulnerable than before, in part because she can be tied more closely to Obama and what the opponents said is his failure to jump-start the economy.

Ozzie deFaria

“If the economy was strong and Debbie Wasserman Schultz was not the head of the DNC, I wouldn’t be running,” said Ozzie deFaria, a political neophyte who’s one of the candidates for the seat.

And it appears to be drawing the attention of national Republicans. McCain has joined Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina and former Congressman J.C. Watts in endorsing deFaria.

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and the Susan B. Anthony List, a group that supports female conservatives, have backed Karen Harrington, who ran against Wasserman Schultz in 2010. Harrington also has the support of three current members of Florida’s congressional delegation.

Meanwhile, pizza magnate Herman Cain has dubbed deFaria and Joe Kaufman, the third Republican candidate in the race who’s raised more than $100,000, as members of his “Army of Davids” who back his 9-9-9 tax plan. Kaufman also has the backing of comedian Jackie Mason.

And deFaria and Harrington both touted fundraising efforts that have brought in money from 48 and 49 states, respectively. (Harrington needs only North Dakota; donors from South Dakota and Hawaii would round out the 50 for deFaria.)

For deFaria, who’s poured more than $273,000 of his own money into the race, according to the FEC, it’s a unique chance to knock off Wasserman Schultz. And part of that message is an implicit criticism of Harrington.

“We missed a golden opportunity in 2010, when Republicans swept the House. … No one’s been funded to challenge her and there’s never been a credible candidate,” he said.

He also knocks Harrington for straying from conservative orthodoxy, accusing her of supporting a pathway to citizenship for those in the country illegally and not strongly backing a plan by House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., that would overhaul Social Security and Medicare.

Wasserman Schultz is likely to try to use the Ryan plan as a bludgeon against her eventual opponent. Democrats have harped on the plan’s changes to Social Security and Medicare; in 2009, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated that 27.2 percent of the district had earned Social Security income in the last year.

deFaria says he’s not scared.

“Right now, the Democrats, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and President Obama have no record to run on,” he said. “So what are you going to do? Scare tactics.”

Karen Harrington

Harrington said her hesitance about the Ryan plan is that it uses overall inflation to increase the size of payments to seniors to help them buy health insurance. Harrington said she would instead like to see the plan pegged to the cost of health-care inflation, which tends to be higher.

And she paints her experience of a short and somewhat haphazard first run against Wasserman Schultz — “I really just went by the seat of my pants” — as a positive now that she has had more time to fine-tune her approach.

“I have the experience of going up against her. I already have the name ID in the district,” she said.

Harrington has raised more than $235,000 to deFaria’s nearly $395,000, according to the FEC.

Kaufman, who has worked to expose Islamic groups he says traffic in hate, has raised more than $186,000.

Kaufman asked for questions to be emailed to him but did not respond.

Two other candidates, Gineen Bresso and Juan Eliel Garcia, have both raised less than $25,000. Carl Mathiesen hasn’t reported any contributions.

But even the front-runners’ war chests so far pale in comparison to Wasserman Schultz, who has already raised $2.3 million and had $1.7 million cash on hand as of March 31.

Even so, the candidates push forward, in part because they believe the stakes are high.  ”If we don’t beat her this time,” Harrington said, “she’s never going to be beat.”

Warring Lieutenants in the “Army of Davids” – Kaufman and deFaria both get Herman Cain’s designation in CD23 race to Unseat Debbie Wasserman Schultz

Call this the case of the “warring Lieutenants.”  First Joe Kaufman and now Ozzie deFaria have been named as “Lieutenants” in Herman Cain’s “Army of Davids.”  Both Kaufman and deFaria, along with Karen Harrington, Juan Eliel Garcia, and Gineen Bresso are competing for the Republican nomination to face off against Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the November general election.   We’re pretty sure that since this “designation” can go to multiple candidates, Harrington will compete for it next.

Cain states that he used the term “An Army of Davids” because he views his opponents as big government Goliath.  Cain stated that his movement “is all about empowering an army of Davids to demand that we replace our twisted tax code with the simplicity of 9-9-9, that we reform the federal regulatory morass, and that we return to a system of sound money.”

It seems to be that the designation is more about promoting Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan than the actual candidates, though.  We’re not sure that the 9-9-9 plan  necessarily plays well in every congressional district, but we are sure that every candidate tries to one-up the other in gaining endorsements.  So, overall, consider it a plus for Kaufman and deFaria.

You can see both designations on the jump here

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Michele Bachmann Endorses Connie Mack – Reaction

As featured in the Tampa Bay Times Buzz Blog today,  Connie Mack rolled out an endorsement from Michele Bachmann: “Connie has been a steadfast fighter for freedom, less government and a fiscal hawk together with me in the United States Congress. For every good proposal passed out of the House, the liberal Senate under Harry Reid and Bill Nelson have stopped it, including Connie’s recent proposal to build the Keystone XL Pipeline without Presidential approval. Senators like Marco Rubio and Rand Paul need other like-minded conservatives in the Senate to stop the liberals from tearing down our nation. America needs Connie Mack in the U.S. Senate.”

The Mack campaign is hoping this will counteract the recent Herman Cain endorsement of LeMieux.

What do we at FCN think?  While endorsements like these can be used to show momentum in a campaign, we’d question their true value.  Would a voter seriously say, “I’m voting for ______ in Florida because Congresswoman Michele Bachmann from Minnesota endorsed him/her”?  The same could be said of the Cain endorsement.  That being said, while both Cain and Bachmann fizzled out during the Presidential race, we’d give the Herman Cain endorsement of LeMieux a little more street cred since he is on Fox News a lot more often and seems to attract more attention lately.

Herman Cain Endorses LeMieux – Reaction (VIDEO)

Herman Cain endorsed George LeMieux at this past Friday’s Hernando County Lincoln Day Dinner:

“As of tonight, I am officially endorsing George LeMieux for United States Senate,” said Herman Cain. “This is the type of person that we need in Washington, DC. People who are not afraid to challenge the establishment; people who are there to represent the people and not represent politics; people who understand that it’s time that we stop shuffling the chairs on the deck of the Titanic and start solving stuff. That’s the kind of Senator that he is, that’s the kind of Senator that he will be, that’s why I support you, sir.”

“I am honored to receive Herman Cain’s endorsement of my bid to return to the US Senate,” said George LeMieux. “Cain inspired the people of Florida with his showing at Presidency 5 and I am proud to have his support. This is further proof that our campaign is on the rise in Florida.”

Our initial reaction at FCN is that this is part of LeMeiux’s effort to paint himself as more conservative than his leading opponent, Connie Mack.  Though the value of a Herman Cain endorsement seems extremely limited (just ask Newt Gingrich), LeMieux’s efforts seem to be causing the grassroots activists to coalesce behind him.  Throw this on top of LeMieux’s recent Tea Party straw poll wins and you have what amounts to be an effort to repeat Marco Rubio’s rise in the 2010 race.

The only problem here is that Rubio’s rise in the polls (real polls and straw polls) came in Summer 2009 – a year before the 2010 elections.  With less than four months to go to the August primary, LeMieux’s efforts may be coming too late.     Plus, despite all the politicos’ efforts to paint this race as a Crist v. Rubio redux, the reality on the ground is that this race is totally different.  Charlie Crist is not on the ballot, and George LeMieux is no Charlie Crist.  LeMieux’s voting record in the Senate confirms this.  No one, for that matter, is Marco Rubio either.  Adam Hasner tried to be the “Marco Rubio” candidate of the 2012 Senate race and it went nowhere.  Even Marco wouldn’t have been the same candidate that the tea party embraced if he wasn’t running against Crist.

What do our readers think?