The Florida US Senate Race has featured a long list of candidates and potential candidates:
State Sen. President Mike Haridopolos…dropped out
Former Florida State Rep. & State House Majority Leader Adam Hasner….decided to run for Congress instead
Craig Miller…decided to run for Congress instead
Former Sen. George LeMieux…dropped out
Marielena Stuart…got in back in June 2011, just now getting noticed…first time candidate
Col. Mike McCalister…up and down in the race, but faded from view since the end of last year
Former Congressman Dave Weldon…Erstwhile Congressman but only recently jumped in.
CFO Jeff Atwater…considered getting in, but determined it was too late.
Connie Mack…frontrunner from the start
While McCalister has faded and Stuart and Weldon are just getting noticed, this race was Mack’s from the beginning. It is impossible for Stuart and Weldon to raise the funds in what is little more than one month to go in order to make a competitive bid for this seat. Their conservative message might appeal inside the REC circuit, but this just goes to show that the RECs are a very small part of the Republican primary electorate.
Case in point – Stuart won the Pinellas straw poll recently. There were a couple hundred votes cast in the poll in total. Stuart got 110. LeMieux who dropped out got 69. Mack who didn’t show got 12. There are almost 220,000 Registered Republicans in Pinellas county. Does anyone legitimately think that the victory in Pinellas is representative of the voters’ sentiment in Pinellas? Let’s remember that Governor Rick Scott was no favorite of the RECs back in 2010…and he won. Money and name ID both favor Mack. He also is reliably conservative. He’ll win on August 14th.
Let us know your thoughts…
Marielena Stuart Wins Pinellas Straw Poll: Reaction
Little known US Senate candidate Marielena Stuart won a surprise victory in the Pinellas REC Straw Poll last night, 110 votes to George LeMieux’s 69, Connie Mack’s 12, Dave Weldon’s 5, and Mike McCalister’s 4.
But when is a straw poll from an REC really a straw poll by an REC? It turns out that Pinellas Chairman JJ Beyrouti allowed anyone in attendance to vote. So the votes cast weren’t all from REC members. There was no fee to participate (like in the Pasco REC’s recent poll) and Stuart’s supporters came out in force.
As the Tampa Bay Times wrote, “Cuban-born Stuart railed against President Barack Obama, Roe vs. Wade, communism in China and Cuba, and popular tea party targets like Agenda 21 during her 15-minute speech.”
While Kevin Thornhill of the Pinellas Patriots, a 9-12 Project group, referred to her as a “female Ronald Reagan,” a member of the Pinellas REC who wished the remain nameless called the whole event “embarassing.” He stated “Stuart doesn’t have a chance in hell and we just marginalized ourselves by doing this.”
Our reaction: While Stuart’s red-meat tea-party inspired speech was well received, this whole episode shows how irrelevant straw polls really have become. We all remember Herman Cain’s victory at Presidency 5. The truth is that after Marco Rubio set the standard for making straw polls seem to carry some weight back in 2009, everyone has tried to be “the next Rubio.” But we believe Rubio’s rise was a one-time event – only when you are a credible candidate like Rubio taking on a liberal Republican incumbent like Charlie Crist can this strategy work. The US Senate Race this year simply is not a Crist v. Rubio redux.
Ms. Stuart stands little chance of winning the August primary, let alone a general election. She has a campaign war chest of $6,500, compared to Nelson’s $9.5 million campaign account, Mack’s $1.38 million, and LeMieux’s $1.19 million.
If an REC is to do a straw poll, it should follow one of two courses. 1) Only let actual REC members participate – then at least an REC Straw Poll will reflect the thoughts of actual REC members. 2) Charge for the straw poll – then no matter what happens, at least the REC makes some money off of the whole thing and the public knows that it would be a “fundraiser straw poll” open to everyone.
While this whole episode does show how unsettled the Senate primary is, it also shows how activists may be “grabbing at straws” in trying to find an alternative to Connie Mack.
→ 4 Comments
Posted in COMMENTARY, NEWS
Tagged connie mack, dave weldon, george lemieux, herman cain, jj beyrouti, Kevin Thornhill, marielena stuart, mike mccalister