It’s Primary Day. One thing is for certain…after today there will be a respite from all those mailers and robocalls and attacks. At least until the November election heats up.
Some interesting races to note:
Connie Mack. He’ll win. Enough said.
John Mica v. Sandy Adams – this should be an interesting battle between a long term Congressman Mica and the tea-party darling Adams (who was elected in 2010). They both have their share of high-profile endorsements, and this one might be indicative of where the Republican primary electorate is headed…at least in the Orlando area. Polling points to a Mica victory.
The Dirty Attack-Ridden Congressional District 23 Primary- We’ve pointed out before that this race is mostly an exercise in futility – it’s really all about who will win the primary and then get beat by Debbie Wasserman Schultz in November. Don’t say we’re not conservatives for telling everyone the obvious. This is a solid Democrat district where it’s an uphill battle of the highest sort to beat DWS in 2012. In the newly drawn District 23, these same precincts voted in the 2008 President election as follows: John McCain 37.4%, Barack Obama 61.8%. In the 2010 Governor’s election (which was the best Republican election since 1946), these precincts voted as follows: Rick Scott 37.6%, Alex Sink 60.1%.
It’s amazing how much money has been spent in this primary between the Republican challengers. Karen Harrington and Ozzie deFaria have been attacking each other for months…Harrington’s attacks focus on Mr. deFaria’s past arrest (the charges were all dropped), claiming that this makes him unelectable. Harrington leaves out the fact that the charges were dropped. We’ve highlighted this in our previous posts. Mr. deFaria has attacked Harrington for becoming a Republican shortly before running back in 2010, being against the Ryan plan, attending a gay wedding ceremony, among other factual distinctions. He has backed up these claims with evidence. Likely, the mug shots of deFaria sent out by the Harrington campaign will resonate more in voters’ minds. But will voters look beyond what was really a family matter – especially since deFaria’s ex-wife and husband support deFaria’s campaign and all charges were dropped?
Mr. Joe Kaufman is also running, and he may benefit from the war between Harrington and Mr. deFaria. Most races like this come down to money, and in the end, we at FCN will predict the winner to be Harrington. We say this only because she’s been campaigning since she lost last time two years ago. She’s spent an adequate amount to win, with the requisite mailings and so forth. The mug shots of Mr. deFaria that Harrington has circulated will likely damage his prospects. Will voters look beyond it, since no charges were filed? Who knows. Though Harrington should win…and then go down to defeat with at least 60-40 in November…we may be wrong and deFaria may in fact win.
While appealing, we don’t see how Gineen Bresso can dent these other candidates, since she got in the race late and hasn’t raised much money. Juan Eliel Garcia has raised the least, and he should only pull in those voters that may want to follow his thoughts about how a Hispanic should be the nominee because of the increasing Hispanic numbers in the district.
If there’s a surprise here, it would be a Kaufman victory. He has run a clean campaign, and raised a significant amount of money which should have allowed him to do the requisite mailers, etc.
It will also be interesting to note by how much the winner (likely Harrington) wins by. If it’s not by much, and only a plurality like last time, it will be a shallow victory.
Legg v Wallace v Korsack for State Senate District 17.
According to StPetePolls.org, John Legg received 61% of the respondents’ support, followed by Rob Wallace at 22% and John Korsack at 17%. The Democrat in Senate District 17 has dropped out, so the winner of the GOP primary will be elected. We agree with these figures.
Tom Lee v Rachel Burgin
Former Senate President Tom Lee is leading Rachel Burgin in the GOP primary StPetePolls.org for Senate District 24, 59 to 41 percent. We tend to agree.
Brandes v. Frishe in Senate District 22
We predict Brandes.
Cliff Stearns District 3 – he should win.
Congressional District 6. Anybody’s guess.
Congressional District 19 primary. - An exclusive, scientific News-Press poll shows Trey Radel and Paige Kreegel in a statistical tie in the Congressional District 19 GOP primary. Six candidates are vying for the GOP nomination in Tuesday’s primary. Public Policy Polling conducted the poll, showing Radel at 25% and Kreegel at 23%. Goss could also come in and win this one.